Well, folks. There it is. Karlsson is out for the season after lacerating his left Achilles. So the question now is; just how well will the Sens do without the reigning Norris trophy winner?

The loss of Karlsson will hurt the Sens the most at even-strength. It’s one thing to eat up a lot of ES minutes (1st in ES TOI in the league), but to dominate is another. With Karlsson on the ice this season, the Senators had 59.6% of the scoring chances, meaning their opponents took just 40.4%. In other words, when Karlsson is on the ice, the Sens play like a team worthy of the Stanley Cup.

But everything changes once he’s off the ice.

The Colorado Avalanche are like the modern day pre-cap era Boston Bruins. Their penny-pinching ways have already cost them Craig Anderson and it seems like their young and already very effective two-way center is next out the door.

With speculation intensifying and reports indicating that O’Reilly could be dealt to an Eastern Conference team, during the first intermission last night, the TSN Panel weighed in on where O’Reilly could land.

With less than 30 seconds remaining in the second period, Erik Karlsson took a Matt Cooke's skate blade (inadvertant or deliberate depending on your mileage) to the back of his left leg. To this point, there's no update on his status and on the Interwebs, it's all speculation as to the severity of his injury. For what it's worth, he was helped off the ice and assisted back to the Senators' dressing room. 

It's not the first time that Karlsson has been targetted by Cooke in that same location on the ice.  

Everybody drink!

Update: 9:30 pm

Update on Karlsson: Erik suffered a laceration to his left achilles, which will require surgery to repair. He will be out indefinitely.

— Ottawa Senators (@NHL_Sens) February 14, 2013

And the word from the good doctor:

Well there you go. Achilles lac requiring surgery. Karlsson likely done for the season. Sorry, Ottawa.

— Jo Innes (@JoNana) February 14, 2013

This is big-time rehab. Range of motion, flexibility. Three months in a cast boot. Full activity in four (if you’re a regular person).

— Jo Innes (@JoNana) February 14, 2013

Achilles injuries do come in varying degrees. Partial tear, complete tear. But surgery is surgery, and recovery will be a while.

— Jo Innes (@JoNana) February 14, 2013

Most people do well w early treatment & good rehab. He could definitely be 100%. In six months or a year. :(

— Jo Innes (@JoNana) February 14, 2013

Fantastic.

Here's Darren Dreger making an excellent point that is sure to bring a tear to many Sens fans: 

As angry as the Sens might be with Cooke, a missed call on the puck hitting mesh out of play 12 seconds before Karlsson injury can't happen.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) February 14, 2013

And GM Bryan Murray's take:

Murray: "It's Matt Cooke. What else should I say? Watch the replay."

— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_Trib) February 14, 2013

AP photographer Gene J. Puskar's haunting photo of the incident:

Think things are tense for Sens fans? The scene in Pittsburgh post-game: 

Don't laugh about something 50 feet from Sens locker room (unrelated to game, by the way). Bryan Murray will tell you off. I just found out.

— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_Trib) February 14, 2013

Sounds like Josh just got Jim Fox'd. 

Two Anaheim Ducks scouts are in attendance tonight watching tonight’s Buffalo versus Ottawa tilt. Conversely, Ottawa has scouts in attendance for tonight’s Blackhawks versus Ducks game.

Like the double-rainbow guy, I can only ask myself, “What does it mean!?!?”

Is it some sign that the Sens are aiming big and taking aim at one of Anaheim’s big name tickets like a Corey Perry, a Ryan Getzlaf or a Bobby Ryan? Or perhaps it’s indicative of Bryan Murray revisiting a player like Andrew Cogliano – someone who was involved in a reported trade package with Edmonton that Dany Heatley infamously vetoed.  

Who knows?

Ah well, it’s all fodder for discussion. Have at it in the comment thread. 

If you're a regular reader of the site you probably will have noticed chance tables posted after every game...well they've now been totalled for your enjoyment! Somehow twelve games means a quarter of the schedule is done, and while twelve games isn't an ideal sample, I thought it'd still be interesting to take stock of Ottawa's season thus far.

For those unfamiliar, this is the scoring chance definition I adhere to when I'm tracking games:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score."

The "home plate" scoring chance area can be seen below.

If you have any questions, or need clarification on anything just stop by in the comments. But without further ado, here's the season to date, along with a few notes.

sticktap to @DJ_ImProV for the video

Looking back at last season’s Norris Trophy candidacy and the debates that ensued, it’s pretty funny to look at the current landscape and re-examine how each of last year’s candidates are playing.

Granted, it’s a small sample size – with most defenders, we’re looking at a nine to eleven game sample size that they have played this season.

So let’s have a look, shall we?

We can make excuses for the absurdities that a shortened season can create but when contrasting these aforementioned numbers with Karlsson’s -- 11 GP, 5 G, 9 Pts, +6, 50 shots, 27:59 TOI/G, 3:31 PP TOI/G and 2:26 SH TOI/G -- everyone’s numbers, with the exception of Pietrangelo’s, fall well short of expectations.

And if we’re truly being honest with ourselves, Karlsson doesn’t have the added luxury of playing with a regular defensive partner who’s known for having the “greatest first pass in the NHL”. Yet, despite this incredible disadvantage, Karlsson leads the NHL in shots.

What’s intriguing about this list of defencemen is number of who have changed defensive partners. For Karlsson, and Pietrangelo, the transition has been easier than it has for Suter and Weber. Considering how much Predator fans and Karlsson detractors played up Erik’s lack of shorthanded ice-time, I never truly understood why a proportionate amount of criticism was not levied against Weber for the strength of his defensive partner.

Sky is Falling: Michalek Not Producing As Many Goals Without Spezza

Milan Michalek is not scoring goals and the media has taken notice. Last season’s shooting percentage of 16.5% was a career high for Michalek, so some regression from his career high of 35 goals was to be expected. The interesting thing about Michalek is that is still shooting 10.5%, just a shade of his career average of 12.7%.

The problem is that Michalek simply isn’t shooting enough. With 19 shots through 11 games, Michalek’s averaging 1.7 shots per game. Ten players on the Senators have better shot rate metrics than Milo.

The loss of Spezza is a huge blow to Michalek, but in his absence, it should help the organization determine whether Milo is a nice piece to have or a piece that they need when his contract expires after the 2013/14 season.

Carkner Sent to the IR

As one Twitter follower pointed out to me this morning, with Matt Carkner being placed on IR with a groin injury, it underlines how the Senators made the smart but difficult decision to walk away from the defenceman. I agree that the Senators made the right decision, but let’s give the Isles more credit for making it an easy one for the Sens.