Another gameday means another prediction as part of the Ottawa Citizen's panel. Here's what I had to say...

Senators 4, Predators 2

"If it bleeds, we can kill it." ~ Dutch (Arnold Schwarzenegger's character from the movie Predator)

It's tough to pick against the Senators when the Predators organization is bleeding profusely.

Heading into action last night's action against the Bruins, the Preds owned a 2-4-1 record -- Good for second worst record in the Western Conference. Combine an underachieving roster with some average goaltending and it's a recipe for disaster. Even Sens fans who are concerned with Erik Karlsson's defensive shortcomings, can appreciate the fact that he doesn't share Hamhuis or Klein's plus/minus of -7. Have I even mentioned that Jason Arnott has a significant arm injury that will keep him out of action?

To read the rest of the panel's predictions, click here.

photo from http://www.mrbiggs.com/illustration/illustrations/shredderman_nicknames_L.jpg

Here's what I'm liking thus far and I'll list the few. Let me know what you think...

• Milan Michalek -- M&M; With a fanclub called Michalek's Anonymous
• Jason  Spezza -- Imprezza; Spez Dispenser
• Jonathan "Machu" Cheechoo -- a play on the Peruvian tourist attraction
• Alexei Kovalev -- L' Enigma or the traditional AK27
• Mike "I Never Thought Carrie" Fisher "Was That Hot"
• Daniel Alfredsson -- Landlord; Alfie;
• Nick "Roots" Foligno -- Always pays respect to them...
• Peter Regin -- Marmaduke; Great Dane;
• Ryan Shannon -- The Runaway (in homage to Del Shannon)
• Jarkko Ruutu -- Fingers; Darko; Sharkko; R2;
• Chris Kelly -- Pedro for his resemblance to that character in Napoleon Dynamite
• Chris Neil -- Ginger; Dumb Penalty Face
• Shean Donovan -- Sloth for his resemblance to Sloth from the Goonies
• Matt Carkner -- Big Easy; The Shark; Steve Perry; MC Hammer
• Erik Karlsson -- The Tenant
• Brian Lee -- "Don't Hold Marc Staal Against Me"
• Chris Phillips -- The Big Rig
• Anton Volchenkov -- A-Train
• Chris Campoli -- Worth a 1st
• Alexandre Picard -- Jean Luc
• Filip Kuba -- Fidel; or "Where's the Uterus?"
• Pascal Leclaire -- sPaz; or his traditional Snoopy
• Brian Elliott -- The B Keeper

Earl McRae of the Ottawa Sun is running a nickname contest for members of the Ottawa Senators. To enter, you just have to give him any current five players and their respective nicknames. It's not a bad way to encourage some discussion and get your readers involved, until I saw some commenter named Danny borrow my 12 steps idea for Michalek and pass it off as his own. (Angry fist shaking motion.)

In homage of Earl McRae's piece...I'll submit a list of nicknames if you guys put together a good list.

Get it going...

Matt "Steve Perry" Carkner has done it. He's finally landed the one-way deal that he has sought since being drafted ten years ago by the Montreal Canadiens. After an impressive training camp, exhibition schedule and first six games, Carkner has signed an extension for two additional years at a cap hit of $700k.

At the outset, there may be some subjective reservations about extending the contract of a 28-year old "Journey Man" who hasn't played enough to deserve a $200k raise and a one-way contract. But what's the risk? His salary is modest. If he cannot maintain his current level of play, the team can expose him to a trade, waivers or re-entry waivers down the road.

On the other hand, if Carkner's solid play continues, the cost of retaining him would only increase as Carkner got closer to July 1st and unrestricted free agency.

By locking him up now, the Senators organization did themselves and Carkner a favour and I couldn't be happier for the guy.

And here I was, going to write about how much I hate the long layoff between Sens games. It wasn't because I don't get to watch my favorite hockey team play for awhile. No. It's because everything that's written about the Ottawa Senators is the same.

I had these two introductory sentence all typed out.

Were you aware that Jason Spezza had zero goals so far this season? Were you also aware that he's become a much better defensive player?

If you answered no to either of those questions then today's your lucky fucking day.

Consequently, I was all set to make fun of the numerous local articles that articulated that Spezza's defensive prowess made up for the fact that he wasn't producing. And then I was set to make fun of the non-local commentary that was opining his lack of production. I even had the links and headlines all typed up and ready to go.

• Ottawa Sun - Spezza rises to Sens' defence
• Ottawa Citizen - No Worries Mate
• Sportsnet's Ian Mendes - No Goals, No Problem For Spezza
• CTV Olympic Coverage, Mike Brophy - Team Canada: Early Season Auditions
• The Hockey News - Sen-sational Start

And then Bryan Murray had to go out and resign Matt Carkner to a new two-year contract extension. (Ed. note: The Ottawa Citizen has revealed that the terms of the deal are two years, $1.4M total.) If this wasn't interesting enough, things only got better when two of the local Sens bloggers got into a dispute on Twitter.

In one corner, Sens Chirp. In the other, The Universal Cynic, Erin Nicks. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks. And while you're at it, start following The 6th Sens on Twitter.

I love Anton Volchenkov. I love everything about the guy -- his nickname, his willingness to block shots, his patented hits along the boards by the blueline and the fact that I know nothing about the guy's personality even though he's been here for years.

That's why it was so refreshing to hear Chris Campoli recall a story to the Citizen regarding that he and Volchenkov spent hours searching the Internet for footage of a hit that the A-Train put on Campoli when he was playing for the Isles. (Allegedly, the hardest one that Campoli's received in his career.)

So if I like Volchenkov so much, why did I spend a few minutes this morning wiping coffee off of my laptop monitor after reading that Sens Chirp believes that Volchenkov was poised to get $4-5M from the Senators on a contract extension?

Here were Chirp's exact words...

There are already whispers that Murray is working on an extension for Volchenkov but those talks are very much in the early stages. Volchenkov is expected to bring down anywhere from $4-5 million on a long term deal.

Either way, locking up Volchenkov has to be a priority for the Senators this season and the sooner they get it done the better. Volchenkov appears to be well on the way to a career season and if hes allowed to hit the open market he will certainly demand top dollar.

So why would I be so hesitant to give the A-Train that kind of coin? Probably because there's a lot of inherent risk involved. Especially when history dictates trusting that much money and years into a player who's a physical, shot-blocking machine isn't necessarily the safest long-term investment.

One recent example of this is Jay McKee. On July 1st, 2006, McKee signed a 4-year, $16M contract as an unrestricted free agentthat saw him register 98 hits and led the league with 241 blocked shots for the Buffalo Sabres.

McKee, a 10-year veteran, had been Buffalo's senior player. He was coming off a strong season in which he helped the Sabres win a franchise-best, 52 regular-season games and clinch their first playoff berth since 2001. McKee then played a big role in Buffalo's extended post-season run, which ended with a Game 7 loss in the Eastern Conference finals to eventual Stanley Cup champion Carolina. ~ Canoe

After three injury marred seasons, McKee had his contract bought out by the Blues. When asked for his opinion on why he was let go, Mckee said, "The bottom line is, I didn't fit in their depth chart and my salary was probably a hindrance to their payroll."

Now I'm not saying that Volchenkov's going to be the next McKee, wherein injuries could adversely affect him in the same way. It's just that I view physical, defensive defencemen like I view NFL running backs. Once they're on the wrong side of thirty, the bumps and bruises that they've accumulated over the course of their careers tend to take their toll. Because of the way he plays, he's likely to be more suceptible to injury. (I know this is completely circumstantial evidence. Believe me when I say that I'd like to back this up with statistical data. But, I can't. You'll just have to take my word or decide for yourself whether this is a reasonable assertion or not. Although, Wade Redden's softness is a fine Exhibit A in my defence.)

While the nature of his play could be a deterring factor later in his career, it's equally as important to examine his financial worth moving forward. Since Volchenkov is Ottawa's premier shutdown defenceman, it's imperative to discuss the current open market rate for comparable players.

And as Sens Chirp alluded to, recent contracts like Mike Komisarek's have set a bit of a benchmark. I've done some research and have come up with a list of some players who have posted similar high shot blocking and hits totals on par with Volchenkov -- 7GP, 18 hits, 24 blocked shots, $3.2M salary ($2.5M cap hit)

• Jay McKee -- 8 GP, 8 hits, 28 blocked shots, $800k
• Matt Greene -- 8 GP, 19 hits, 21 blocked shots, $2.95M
• Brendan Witt -- 6 GP, 10 hits, 24 blocked shots, $3M
• Scott Hannan -- 8 GP, 9 hits, 19 blocked shots, $4.5M
• Brooks Orpik -- 8 GP, 23 hits, 15 blocked shots, $3.725M
• Mike Komisarek -- 8 GP, 25 hits, 13 blocked shots, $4.5M
• Brad Stuart -- 7 GP, 25 hits, 12 blocked shots, $3.75M
• Niklas Kronwall -- 7 GP, 15 hits, 13 blocked shots, $1.5M salary ($3.0M cap hit)
• Brent Seabrooke -- 8 GP, 22 hits, 15 blocked shots, $3.5M
• Dennis Seidenberg -- 6 GP, 20 hits, 17 blocked shots, $2.25M
• Rob Blake -- 8 GP, 8 hits, 20 blocked shots, $3.5M
• Kyle Quincey -- 8 GP, 13 hits, 19 blocked shots, $550k ($525k cap hit)
• Matt Carkner --7 GP, 14 hits, 19 blocked shots, $500k
• Barrett Jackman -- 3 GP, 8 hits, 7 blocked shots, $3.625M

Interestingly, no one on this list earns more than $4.5M per year. While I'd give Volchenkov the nod over almost all of the names on the list, I think it's important to note that both of the players who earn over $4M (Komisarek and Hannan) are considered amongst many to be overpaid.

So if you're Bryan Murray, what do you do? Obviously, trading Volchenkov isn't an option unless the Senators suddenly fall flat and perform a Battle of the Blades'esque death spiral out of the playoff picture or contract negotiations stall and he promises to go on the open market. However, as Sens Chirp indicated, there allegedly is optimism from both sides that a deal can be reached.

During negotiations, however, there's a fine line to be drawn here: One one hand, A-Train's too valuable to lose on a blueline that can best be categorized as average. And on the other hand, an overpriced contract in a salary cap system can seriously debilitate the team's financial flexibility as the team continues to improve in the future.

Here are three options that I have come up with for Bryan:

• Since Volchenkov's turning 28, give him big dollars on a two or three year deal. $4M-$4.25M maximum offer. The key here is not to extend the contract past the point where the A-Train's prime of his career is over.
• Offer a staggered contract extension similar to the one that Kronwall signed in Detroit to manipulate the cap. Ken Holland manipulated his average cap hit by giving Kronwall $1.5M in his first year and $3M, $3.25M, $3.5M, and $3.75 in the subsequent years for a $3M average.
• Offer a contract extension similar to the ones that are being investigated by the NHL for circumventing the cap. (ie. Hossa's contract.)

So readers, what would you do?

I'm a little bit pressed for time but have put together enough material to post another grab-bag of sorts. Enjoy this Monday morning linkage:

Jack Todd from the Montreal Gazette said...

Once again Saturday, Price played just well enough to lose. The difference in the Ottawa game (just as it was against Colorado and Edmonton) was the difference between Price and the opposing goalie.

In Edmonton, it was Nikolai Khabibulin. Against the Avalanche it was Craig (not Shawn) Anderson. Against Ottawa, it was Pascal Leclaire, who is proving what a difference a goalie makes for a Senators team that is playing well once again.

I didn't get a chance to watch the finer details of the game, so I'll have to cross reference this statement with some credible Ottawa writing. Let's see what SLC from Five For Smiting has to say...

Blech.  And a lucky blech at that.  Had Pascal not stood on his head early, had the PK not been batshit crazy solid, had the Habs spent even just a little bit more time playing and a little less shooting themselves in the foot, I'm filling this space with enraged yammerings targeting everyone and everything wearing a Sens jersey (YA HEARD ME, SPARTY!).  Instead, we'll take the two points, thank our gracious hosts and slink out of town like thieves.  Oddly enough, I'm okay with that.

Speaking of Saturday night's game against the Canadiens, Alexei Kovalev had this to say afterwards, 

"I can't find any more words to describe how I feel, and how much support I keep getting from these fans."

I'll help you find the words Alex. Thanks for not torching the team bus Habs fans.

While Darren from Silver Seven Sens has come up with a list of reasons why the Senators have reversed their fortunes from last year, Chris Stevenson nails it by showering the Senators second overall ranked penalty killing unit with love.

According to Allen Panzeri of the Ottawa Citizen, what got lost in Saturday night's win wasn't the fact that the Senators didn't play that well. It was that Erik Karlsson's best game of the season was overshadowed by the Alexei Kovalev story.

"Maybe it was anxiousness, the nerves, the atmosphere," Clouston said.

"But I thought the last 40 minutes might have been his best. He looked comfortable, he was making some better plays with the puck, he had a lot more poise with the puck, and physically he was a lot more involved, as well."

The key for Karlsson, Clouston said, is in playing as if he believes he belongs in the NHL, not as if he is still trying out. That can only lead to tentativeness and uncertainty.

"I think he has just got to play his game," Clouston said.

"He has got to, basically, realize that he belongs here and not be in awe. Just go out there and play his game. And, for the most part in the last two periods, he really did that.

"He just said, 'You know what? I'm going to have to make a difference here, that my team needs me."

Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail has two interesting blurbs from his piece this morning:

Circle Oct. 30 on your calendar: You want a look-ahead? On Oct. 28, the Toronto Raptors open the NBA regular-season at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers while the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Dallas Stars. The Leafs have just two games before then (in Vancouver and Anaheim) so if they can continue losing and the Raptors can pull off an upset, there you’d go: Toronto’s NBA team has its first win before its NHL team. You don’t like the Raps’ chances against the Cavs? Neither do I, but not to worry: On Oct. 30 the Raps are in Memphis and the Leafs are in Buffalo. Lookahead? There’s your stinkin’ lookahead ..

and...

Turfed as president and chief executive officer of the Ottawa Senators and Scotiabank Place, Roy Mlakar received early consideration for the Toronto Blue Jays presidency, I’m told.

Let’s see how San Jose Sharks left winger Dany Heatley handles this delicious new career challenge. With the Sharks’ power play stuck in an early season slump, coach Todd McLellan bumped Heatley down to the No.2 unit for last Saturday’s game against the New York Islanders.

Predictably, the move to reunite last year’s top unit of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Devin Setoguchi paid immediate dividends as the Sharks went an efficient 2-for-3 with the man advantage, with Thornton turning in a virtuoso performance. Heatley, remember, demanded a trade of out Ottawa last season after his role was “diminished” by Senators’ coach Cory Clouston, in part because he was shifted to the second power-play unit.

Since pouting in his new NHL home is not a viable option, Heatley’s patience – and the ability to bite his tongue – will be put to its first test of the new season, as the Sharks’ six-game trip continues tonight in Manhattan, against the streaking New York Rangers. ~ Eric Duhatschek, The Globe and Mail

Uh-oh. Expect a Don Brennan angst-induced column that shits on Dany Heatley any minute now.

It's hard enough to write a game recap that can be as encapsulating as an AP one, it's even more difficult when...

• ...you're in a Guinness-induced drunken state
• ...the nearest television screen is at least 25' away
• ...your team is killing it at The Glen's Trivia Night and takes home 1st place.

Consequently, I've decided to piece together a Sunday night grab-bag.

Enjoy.

First Line Chemistry:

Listening to last night's pre-game show on the radio, I couldn't help but notice that a lot of love being directed to the two-way play of Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek. A number of the "experts" believed that Jason Spezza's interest in the defensive aspect of the game can be attributed to his two new linemates. Regardless of his motivation -- Olympic consideration, linemate influence, maturity -- Spezza's defensive zone play thus far deserves to be recognized, even if it isn't reflected in his stats.

Looking Back:

Speaking of the return that Murray actually received for Heatley, I was doing some revisionist research and examined Edmonton's statistics to gauge the development of the return that could have been. Apparently, the trio of Oilers are doing quite well...

Dustin Penner -- 7GP, 5G, 4A, +5

Andrew Cogliano -- 7GP, 2G, 3A, +3

Ladislav Smid -- 7GP, 0G, 3A, +8

Maple Leafs Keep Losing

I don't hate the Maple Leafs organization or their fans as much as some Sens fans. That being said, it sure is fun to watch the losses mount and watch a potential lottery pick slip away. Besides, I'm in favour of anything that makes Mike Toth look like a bigger idiot than he already is.

Kovy Ovations

The Mayor, over at Sens Town, has posted two videos from last night's game that captured the fan response after Kovalev's goal and his third star selection.

The Enigma?

Like I mentioned on the website's Twitter account, how big of an enigma is Kovalev, if everyone predicted that he'd produce against his former club and he followed through?

Too Much Depth

Gerald Norton, of Sensay, makes a valid point discussing Ottawa's layoff and the roster implications that it could have as some of Ottawa's injured players get healthy. He even goes the extra-mile and proposes a trade that he'd like to see Ottawa pursue with Nashville.

With Peter Regin, Filip Kuba and Jesse Winchester to return soon, have your say -- Who should stay? Who should go?

Since the start of the season, I've been participating in James Gordon's (of the Ottawa Citizen's Hockey Capital blog) game-day prediction panel. Here's my prediction for ce coir...

...Senators 3, Canadiens 1

If the Montreal Canadiens could stickhandle their way through Ottawa's defence like Georges Laraque could stickhandle past the women in that Octane energy drink commercial , Ottawa might actually be in trouble. Pundits often allude to Montreal's lack of size at forward, but it really hasn't helped matters that in the last three years, they've lost Souray, Komisarek and Streit on defence and have replaced them with Paul Mara, Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek respectively. When you compound this problem with Andrei Markov's injury, it's the talent on the Habs defence that really comes up short.

If you want to check out the rest of the panel's predictions, click here.