In the wake of some hopefully productive NHL CBA negotiations, @creecher1200 and I jumped back in the studios and were joined on phone by the proprietor of 30 Thoughts -- Hockey Night in Canada's Elliotte Friedman.

During the interview, we hit on a number of topics including: THE LOCKOUT, a potential Melnyk sale of the team, Corey Perry as a future Senator, and sabermetrics.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't be, but if you're not following Elliotte on Twitter, do so immediately - @FriedgeHNIC. And while you're at it, please check out his Movember page and offer a donation with the message - The 6th Sens sent you. 

As always, you can subscribe/download/stream the episode or entire catalogue of episodes from Itunes. Or you can download the file by right-clicking and saving this file. Or you can simply stream the episode below.

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Thanks for listening, we hope you enjoy the show.

Here is the tracklist for the show: Podcast tracklist: Titus Andronicus Still Life With Hot Deuce And Silver Platter; The Whigs Waiting; The Wedding Present You Jane; and David Bowie Rebel Rebel.

(The Senators actual salary outlay vs the cap floor and ceiling)

Elliotte Friedman is joining Graeme on the podcast tonight, which is timely as it just so happens last week's 30 Thoughts touched on something I'd been meaning to write about:

"The commish has three groups of owners: the ones who want to play; the ones in the middle, including Tampa and Nashville, who want a better collective bargaining agreement but recognize not playing is worse; and the hardliners. It would be a mistake to underestimate the last group. There are several who would rather cancel the season than accept a bad deal because they are hemorrhaging money and need immediate satisfaction.

While the players believe Boston Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs is calling the shots, an educated guess at the final group includes but may not be limited to Anaheim, Columbus, Florida, the Islanders, Phoenix, St. Louis, Washington and Dallas -- enough to block any agreement from getting done (It's tough to lock it down because owners are forbidden to discuss this stuff. Attempts to talk to a couple were politely shot down)."

On Friday, Elliotte appeared on PTS and elaborated on how large the "hardliners" may be:

"Bob, I would say I wrote a blog this week where I named eight teams that I think would cancel the season rather than get a bad deal. And I had an owner reach out to me and tell me I was being too conservative."

In June, this is what Cyril Leeder had to say in an interview with Steve Lloyd on the subject of the CBA, and specifically the cap floor:

Lloyd: We don't anticpate a drastic system change with the next CBA negotiations.

Leeder: Let's hope not.

Lloyd: So let's be positive here. Give us reasons Cyril, why you think we could be starting on time in the fall here?

Leeder: The real reason for optimism is that you know we've really got a good thing going here right now. I think the players would agree - the average income is over 2.5 or 2.6 million dollars. That's the highest its ever been. We don't need a brand new economic model like we needed in 2004, really the business of hockey was broken back then. And that really needed to be put back together. There are some adjustments that need to be done now, but I think calmer heads and cooler heads and reasonable people should be able to agree on that and get that done without too much hissing and fussing this time around.

Lloyd: Alright, I won't pick it to death, I just got one more for you here. Is the salary cap floor an issue? Is that gonna be a big issue for a lot of teams to get to that floor?

Leeder: Well, I guess it will really depend on what the floor is. But..umm...it's becoming more of an issue I think now, certainly for teams like ourselves when you're staring at a floor that could be in the 55 million dollar range than that really becomes an issue. That's a minimum spend. For your listeners, the floor means you gotta spend at least x on players. And when the initial agreement came in the floor was 23 million seven years ago, now it's gonna be more than double that - closer to 55 million. So, you're getting closer to an issue for many teams.

If you'd asked me to place the Senators into one of the aforementioned three groups after these comments I'd have felt strongly they were in the "want a better collective bargaining agreement but recognize not playing is worse" camp, with possibily some hardliner sympathies.

Since that time it's hard to mistake the impression the organization wants to play badly. Here's Leeder on a season seat-holder conference call in October:

“What we’re trying to do the best we can is provide feedback back to the league … and they understand what the mood is here in our community. What we’ve been telling them is our fans are not in the same spot they were seven years ago. They’re not going to put up with a long lockout. We’re encouraging the league to try to make a deal as quickly as possible.”

And finally, Melnyk's comments of less than a week ago that prompted a call, presumably of the chastising variety from the NHL:

"Back in '94, I was a rabid baseball fan, I'm talking like a 40-45 game guy when I still lived in Toronto, I saw the World Series and (the Blue Jays) winning it, went to Atlanta; I was a crazy, crazy baseball fan and after the strike I was gone, (I'm) extremely disappointed like any fan of where we are, we should be playing hockey by now."

Now how much of this to buy as earnest conviction, and how much is an effort to emote with us lowly fans I'm not sure. Still, compared to other NHL clubs, the Senators at least by their recent public comments sound like they're pretty damn close to having two feet in the 'wanting to play' camp. The one constant principle that's animated the Senators in the Melnyk era has been -- what are we doing to remain competitive while Alfie's still here? In player costs the Senators were the highest spending team in the league in 09/10 paying out 65M$ (115% of the cap), and I don't imagine Eugene is eager to get back to those days. Nevertheless, it looks to me like he and the organization have felt strongly for some time that it's better to be playing games, rather than continuing to waste those which may be the captain's last.

Really.

Reads like Bart Scott wrote that one.

That adorably blunt detail is contained in this two-part series Garrioch had over the weekend, embedding on the road with Pierre Dorion. The highlight for my money is the inclusion of Dorion's scouting report on Karlsson from the '08 U-18's in Kazan, Russia (a portion of which is quoted below):

"He carries the puck up the ice a lot and has great poise with it; good passer (crisp and saucer); will penetrate offensive zone as a defenceman; great on the blue line with the man advantage, controls power play from the top; good hard shot that he gets to the net, can overpower a goalie when he slips to the top of the circle, but it's not something that he does a lot as he stays mostly up top with the national team.

He has good defensive instincts, likes to step up on opposing puck carrier and cut angles down against the rush; alert in his own end, strong for his smaller stature and good hockey strength. He doesn't have the biggest range but he's active, (I) like his approach and his tools to be a good offensive defenceman."

The whole thing is a solid read, peeling back the curtain on the day-to-day life of a scout. And if you're looking for more understanding of Dorion's player evaluation process, he guested on the podcast just prior to the 2010 draft.

It's been two weeks since the esteemed HockeyCentral panel re-ignited their own latent Sens sale speculation, (which it should be said was promptly denied). Ottawa wasn't named, but anyone could deduce which Ontario-based club they were talking about. Many people (and this site) took that information as to imply the team was either for sale or looking to bring in additional investors.

I think there's a third possibility which seems as, if not more likely...

Like Melnyk, Francesco Aquilini is another Canadian NHL owner with an unresolved divorce - which may be instructive. In a story from August detailing Mr. Aquilini's successful move to have the courts seal his financial records; exists this noteworthy rationale:

"He also claimed the divorce proceedings require a valuation of his interest in corporations, partnerships and trusts that are owned and controlled by his family."

Days ago on October 31, there was a judgement in the case of Aquilini v. Aquiini, setting out with regards to a valuation of the Vancouver Canucks/Rogers Arena; both parties would be free to rely on seperate financial experts:

"[57]     I therefore exercise the court’s jurisdiction under Family Rule, R. 13-4(3)(a) to appoint Mr. Mynett as a joint expert for the purpose of providing an opinion on the overall value of the Aquilini family partnerships, corporations trusts and other entities (other than the Vancouver Canucks hockey team and Rogers Arena) in which the respondent has or may have an interest. To the extent any report Mr. Mynett has prepared or will prepare deals with that overall valuation, it must be produced immediately or upon completion to counsel for the respondent."

Now compared to the Vancouver media the coverage of Melnyk's divorce has been scarce. As far as I can tell this story from Glen MacGregor in the Citizen dated December 1, 2010 is the last reporting on the subject:

"Prior to the issuance of the sealing order, the Ottawa Citizen obtained documents in the file and called his spokesman for comment. In response, The Citizen received an e-mail from Mr. Melynk's Toronto lawyer, Kent Thompson, warning of possible legal action.

"I expect that this would involve, among other things, the initiation of contempt proceedings against the Citizen as well as against any employee or representative of the Citizen that plays a role in the preparation or dissemination of the publication in question," he wrote."

In a Wednesday appearance on PTS in which he generally tried to say nothing about the lockout (but may still have incurred a fine), Melnyk and Damien Cox had this exchange:

Cox: Do you have a team policy in terms of your employees during this – that you’re going to layoff, not layoff at a certain point? What’s your policy?

Melnyk: Yeah, we have a set policy that was put in place a long time ago. We did let go, it was very public, so it’s not something I’m saying out of turn, a substantial amount of people. Behind the feds (federal government), we’re the second largest employer in Ottawa, period. We’re huge. Yeah, we’re huge. It does make a difference to a lot of people and we had to put a plan in place that would reflect that. It’s sad. These are real people looking for real jobs so we’re cognizant of that. We’re trying to do our best; that’s the best that we can do.”

What!?!

I'm aware this is what Eugene does on PTS -- exaggerate a tad. Boasting of Bobby Butler as an "elite player" was particularily memorable. Still, this one seems cosmically wrong.

In September, the Ottawa Business Journal had a story about the organization's layoffs, which stated prior to cuts, the Senators had 170 employees.

So if we were to graph that...

Now if this is accurate it might be time to shutter Ottawa completely.

But let's double check first -- are there any non-federal employers in Ottawa with more than 170 staff?

You can add Tim Hortons and a good many others to that list as well.

If you were to ask any Senators fan to recall some semblance of a connection between the city of Hartford and the Senators, most would probably answer -- it's the place Wade Redden's career went to die.

While that isn't wrong, Hartford is also where seventeen years ago today, Daniel Alfredsson scored the first of ten career NHL hat-tricks (this number includes two postseason hat-tricks).

With Alexei Yashin staging his own contract holdout, a recurring theme in these "On this Day in Senators History" pieces that I've been writing, Alfredsson tallied three goals on four shots against Sean Burke and the Hartford Whalers; leading the Senators to a 5-0 win over their Northeast Division rivals.

The hat-trick broke an eight-game goalless drought for Alfie; although with one goal and eight points in his first ten games that season, it was not like he was being held off of the scoresheet. If anything, in retrospect, this game probably helped boost his confidence as he tallied five goals in the six games that followed. He would finish the season with 61 points in 82 games.

By adding an assist that night, Alfie's four-point night marked a season high for the Swede; ultimately helping him capture the organization's first major NHL Award -- the Calder Trophy.

As a minor footnote in this story, Don Beaupre beat the odds, recording the second shutout in franchise history with 41-saves, one of the six wins he had in 33 appearances that season. Along with Martin Straka and Bryan Berard, he would eventually be dealt in a three-way Islanders, Leafs deal that netted the Senators Damian Rhodes and Wade Redden.
 

With the advancement of hockey statistics over the past few years, one of the leaders at the forefront of this movement has been Rob Vollman. 

He may be the founder of HockeyAbstract.com, but he is also a founding writer of Hockey Prospectu and a regular contributor to ESPN Insider, NHLnumbers.com and Arctic Ice Hockey. You may remember us having him one our podcast, or you may recall us publishing the Ottawa Senators' Player Usage Charts in a blog article earlier in the year. 

Even if you only have a passing interest in the advancement of stats in hockey, at some point, you have invariably come across some of his work. 

One of his inventions is the Snepts System that is used to make statistical projections for current NHL players based upon similar historical players.

Via SenatorsExtra.com:

Peter Regin’s stay in a second-tier Swiss hockey league appears to be over.

The web site for SC Langenthal says Regin’s stay was a temporary one while the team’s leading scorer from the previous year, Jeff Campbell, recovered from a concussion.

Because anytime you have the opportunity to bring a Jeff Campbell (pictured above) back into the fold, you just have to make room. I mean, who wouldn’t want a 5’9” (his hair adds three inches to his height), 170 pounds, Tier II scoring phenom – 20 goals and 57 points in 45 GP – from Hensall, Ontario on their roster?

Whatever the cost, I suppose.

While the lack of lockout negotiations between the NHL and NHLPA will help ensure that Regin will have time to find another European team to catch on with, for him, it’s the latest in a series of setbacks that have plagued him for the past few years. Having only played in 10 games last season and 65 in the past two seasons, being able to get into games and demonstrate that he can be productive and remain healthy, is of the utmost importance to him because of his contract uncertainty with the Senators.

In signing a one-year contract with the Sens this past summer, should the lockout wipe out the entire 2012/13 NHL season, Regin could conceivably enter the offseason as an unrestricted free agent.

For some time, this blog has long been a proponent of Regin’s, so the possibility of watching him leave the organization with his value at its lowest point isn’t particularly appealing. 

After a segment involving prospect Mark Borowiecki, Binghamton Senators head coach Luke Richardson made his weekly appearance on Team 1200’s The Drivethis afternoon. For all the dialogue between the hosts and Borowiecki concerning about how many games Richardson played in his NHL career, the only thing that spans longer are the length of Richardson’s interview answers. Not that I’m complaining mind you. For all those years that I had to endure driving to the rink with my dad to catch a game, these interviews more than make up for those Jacques Martin’s ‘Jacques Talk’ pre-game segments featuring Gord Wilson. It’s a refreshing change of pace to listen to a coach who can carry an interview and preserve my interest in what he has to say.

Please note that the full Richardson interview hasn’t been transcribed. To listen to the full interview, you can visit the Team 1200’s Facebook page. Below is just the information that I found to be pertinent. My thoughts are in bold.

Believe it or not, another Russian national has expressed ambivalence towards returning to the NHL stemming from comforts enjoyed in the Motherland.

First there was Alex Ovechkin threatening to stay in the KHL should NHL owners follow through and roll back the salaries of its players. Then there was Sergei Kostitsyn’s acknowledgment that he would not mind the lockout wiping out the entire 2012/13 season, if it meant he could definitively know where he would be spending the remainder of the year.

This time, it’s a member of your Ottawa Senators who is raising some eyebrows. Pick up your pitchforks and torches folks.