Last night I received an email from a reader that included an awesome piece of statistical analysis that helps explain why Ottawa's downfall is not surprising. With his permission, I've published his work here on the site. My thanks go out to @Wham_City for submitting his work. I'd also like to encourage the readers who are on Twitter to start following him. Do it now!
So without further ado...
A familiar refrain of late in Ottawa has been that "expectations were a lot higher for this group". This was a “good team” who “simply haven’t played up to their potential this season”. It's a point that's regularly driven home on the team1200 in the morning, afternoon, evening, pre-game and post-game. How could a 5th place team with minor roster turnover find itself in 13th place in the conference and 27th place overall 49 games into the season? How could these players have underachieved to this extent?
While I amply enjoyed last year’s somewhat surprising ride to the playoffs, my enthusiasm was tempered with a fair amount of skepticism as to the true strength of the team. An average record that was buoyed by a franchise record 11 game winning streak to vault securely into the playoffs was a curious development to say the least. Couple that with the worst goal differential to make the postseason since the lockout, and the suggestion was there for all to see that this was not a true 5th seed.
The peculiar circumstance of a middle playoff team with –13 goal differential on my mind ever since, it was only in the last few days that I decided to take a closer look at the underlying numbers. This is what I found:
On one hand the Senators had the third highest point percentage in one goal games:
On the other they were blown out (loss by 3 goals or more) the most of anyone in the league:
Many would reason a loss is a loss and degree is immaterial. The obvious rejoinder being that good teams simply don't get blown out all that often, much less lead the league.
These two tables are a decent illustration of what many fans would contend was the most salient feature of the Sens in 09/10, their streakiness. A 5 game losing streak would be followed soon after by an 11 game winning streak, bookended by another 5 game losing streak, and so on. Series of close wins and strings of brutal blowouts. Fundamentally this group was a lot sicker than it appeared on the surface.
The situation at present…
The Senators continue to lead the league in losses by 3 goals or more with 16 through 50 games; and are on pace to lose by that mark 26 times over 82 games. And what of last year's saving grace, their record in one-goal games you ask? This year it's a pedestrian 6-7-8 (.476%), a poor team regressing to the mean perhaps? Taken together (from 2009/10 to present) the Sens have been what I would classify as “uncompetitive” in 38 of 132 games; Toronto is #2 with a mark of 32/131. Should “good teams” ever be this prolific in the art of being blown out? (back-to-back titles thus far).
This season’s trajectory is consistent with an organization that has been bottoming out for some time, a projected -85 goal differential a testament to that stark reality. The remnants of a core that were peaking from 02-03 to 06-07 remain, but since that apex the team’s decline has been dramatic. Simply climbing back onto the positive side of goal differential would be a major accomplishment in itself.
I wouldn’t anticipate apocalyptic like -190 differentials the likes of which this franchise was burdened with in the early 90’s. Nevertheless, there exists scarce high upside young blood capable of stepping in next season to pick this team up off the mat, particularly at forward and in goal, a strong upward swing next season is far from a given.
Barring disaster, Clouston will continue to skillfully guide this team to a bottom five finish. Lottery pick in hand the best-case scenario would be a drafted forward capable of contributing as soon as opening night; the bar for an optimistic rookie campaign set at 40 points. That level of production little more than a drop in the bucket that is the collective offensive futility running up and down this roster. A group that is on pace to score in the 170’s in goals for, a mark not reached since the ‘99 expansion Thrashers. Among prospects currently in the system there is little reason to believe the likes of Butler, Silfverberg and O’Brien project to be major difference makers anytime soon.
On the subject of the General Managers state of mind, exactly how much stock should one put in Bryan’s comments on Monday that a 1-year re-tool is all that is necessary? A return to being comfortably ensconced in the middle of the pack as easy as one or two moves? I’m going to go out on a limb and say…not much (especially in light of those same remarks being walked back/clarified on the FAN590 today). My immediate takeaway from his SBP presser was the defiant tone Bryan struck in the face of questions pertaining to the success of his tenure. There were certainly a few instances in which his defenses seemed especially desperate and nakedly unpersuasive. (NOTE: a desperate GM can easily be spotted extolling the virtues of Colin Greening and Eric Condra as impactful NHL forwards). Quite simply he sounded like a guy whose job is on the line (weird, huh?).
The expectations game…
Among those harboring high hopes for the Sens in 2011-12, I’d suggest you might want to save yourself the grief. In goal, Lehner is two years away at least from being an everyday NHL starter. Up front, a 38-year-old Alfie is finally looking his age, a probable 20-30 guy next season (barring retirement). Within the farm and abroad, elite talent is lacking in the forward ranks; those skilled in pushing the pace, playmaking and creating their own shot are nowhere to be found. On the backend, Cowen and Rundblad are expected to make the jump, both stand to be plenty green i.e. plenty full of youthful error. As it relates to a change in philosophy, promoting from within is an admirable direction to chart. However I think most fans are savvy enough to spot the difference between organizational depth, and organizational depth that can contribute significantly at the NHL level.
In recent days, Scanlan has reported the years of being a cap team look to be reevaluated; a full salaried roster could conceivably be iced for 10% less year over year. With that in mind, I wouldn’t hesitate to place this team within the bottom 10 at the conclusion of next season, a top 5 pick (every game Kuba plays increases this outcome exponentially) likely within striking distance. Lest you think I am completely devoid of optimism, the ’12 draft looks to be at least as strong as ‘ 08. The Ottawa Senators have entered the wilderness, the “terrifying lows” if you will. Short of being a 12 month aberration, this has the makings of a multi-year tenancy.
For the first time in memory “the Euge” seems unwilling to proclaim, “The State of the Senators is…STRONG!” His rhetorical flourishes down precipitously from the days of open declarations to “hoard the Cup”. Which isn’t to say Stanley’s no longer on his brain at all times, it is. In any case this week’s developments struck me as positive, Melnyk seems chastened…to the degree that's possible for Eugene. A mindset I’m hopeful will linger and serve him well as this organization takes sober stock of its current position and future direction.
What a difference 8 months can make...
May 2, 2010
Q: Sometimes, if you’re a middle of the pack team, in terms of drafting, you’re picking between 15 and 20, as opposed to bottoming out and picking a superstar in the making. Do you ever think that if you have a really terrible, terrible year, it almost sets you up because you’ve got a potential phenom coming?
Melnyk: First of all, that would never happen. I don’t see a year where we’re not going to be competitive, because we know what’s in our pipeline. We have so much talent coming up, I can’t see us ever doing that.
January 24, 2011
Q: Bryan indicated today that within a year, this team could be back where everyone wants it to be. Are you of the same belief, that it's not going to take a long time for it to happen?
Melnyk: I think a year is a little aggressive. I know we all want to be miracle workers and we all believe we can be. To me, ultimately, we want to succeed. If you're going to get there and people see you're getting there, that's more important than trying to put a deadline on it that may or may not happen. We know what the ultimate objective is and that's all I want to commit to. And that's a big commitment.
Couldn't agree more with your main point. These Senators are certainly not underachievers! They are performing the exactly way all the indicators say they should be performing. I'm not much for statistics, though I'm impressed with what you've done. Just look at the top six forwards heading into this season and it's a no brainer to understand that only two -- Alfredsson and Spezza -- could be counted on consistently to put the puck in the net. Nothing should have led anyone to expect the likes of Kovalev, Michalek or Fisher to find the back of the net reguarly or for the likes of Regin and Foligno to be ready to step into a top-six role. Kovalev doesn't belong period, the other four, with the possible exception of Michalek are third or fourth liners on a contending team. Goaltending, same thing .... what would lead anyone to expect that Leclaire, who's had one good year in the NHL in his injury plagued career, was the answer to the Sen's goaltending problems? And Elliot's a backup at best.
Long past time that Melnyk realizes he needs someone running the team able to understand what is obvious even to the casual fan!
Well I don't put much of any faith in what Toronto media has to say about the Ottawa Senators. What do they know? They don't follow this team day to day.
Greening & Condra are having very good seasons in Binghamton. We will get some idea to their NHL capability when they play in a couple of games this season. Remember when Butler first came up earlier this season he was okay -- but this last call-up he was much better showing his development over this season.
Why should Murray not get excited about his prospects in the AHL? After all this is the first time in 6 yrs or more that any have been there. Binghamton is having their best season since the lockout. Murray is only now pulling this team out of the hole that Muckler left it in (in way of prospects).
I'm not defending him by any means as he has made his mistakes. But he had to clean up one hell of a mess that was left for him. Any GM would be in the same 'boat' he is in today.
I like the idea that Melnyk wants to win a Cup. But let's face it.. that's at least 5 - 10 yrs away.
But I will continue to buy my half-season tickets as long as I'm financially able. I'm a fan of this team.. WIN OR LOSE.. that's what being a fan is all about.
Incredible stuff, deep analysis, much needed in MSM.Thank you for your work.
*Cue MSM comments that you live in mum's basement, etc.*
Doing some simple crunching, at their current pace the Senators are set for 65 points this season, with the Oilers, Islanders and Devils lying between 63 and 68. As anyone who remembers NASDAQ in 2000 knows streaks can go both ways.
It looks like Jersey is playing for respect now, so they might well play their remaining 35 games at above .500, leaving them with 70 points or more, but still a lottery pick. Respect with benefits.
Edmonton won last night, and is trying to win as a young team (Taylor Hall was sporadically brilliant with some sporadic mistakes, but man did he balls-out TRY) and even if they play .400 hockey they'll end up with 66 points.
The Islanders, on the other hand, are gliding miserably along and at their current pace will likely end up with no more than 63 points, give or take one or two.
This leaves the Senators a point or two away from the first or third pick, depending on how things shake out.
(I'm reposting this treatice on my blog.)
Someone needs to e-mail this blog post to media folk -- this shit needs to hit the airwaves.
Q -- what evidence is there that next year's draft is one of great quality? (Not being facetious, just ignorant on draft eligible players)