| 19 June 2009
Alright, it's that time of the offseason again. After a week of incessant Dany Heatley trade discussion, I'm going to throw this out there.
Would you trade Jason Spezza now before his July 1st NTC kicks in?I've talked this over with Tim, and we both think it's extremely unlikely but let's look at the facts:
- Heading into uncertain times, Ottawa can unload Spezza's remaining $42M, 6 year pact before his NTC kicks in on July 1st.
- Dany Heatley will NEVER suit up for the Ottawa Senators again. Without his "crutch" linemate, the onus on Spezza to develop a complete game has never been more present. Jason is paid like an elite NHL player, whether or not he can live up to that billing is another matter.
- All of Spezza's off-ice friends are gone: McGrattan, Emery and now, Heatley.
- Spezza is getting married this summer and last year, he bought an expensive piece of real estate. It'd seem that he's maturing and he's laying down some roots.
- Barring some miraculous replacement, Bryan Murray won't be able to replace Heatley's production. The luxury (if you could call it that?) of worrying about secondary scoring will be long forgotten if fans have to ask themselves where the primary scoring is.
- How Bryan Murray spends Heatley's cap space is a big concern. Will he sign a free agent to replace Heatley? Or will use the cap room to sign a prominent defenseman like Jay Bouwmeester? If neither happens, how mediocre will this team be next season?
- Ottawa has long had a reputation for only being a city that only supports winning franchises. Would the fans be willing to sit through a small rebuilding period?
Tim: In like a lamb out like a lion, that's how I want this off season to begin. I would absolutely be on board with a complete makeover of this team and support dealing both of our superstars. Heatley will fetch a nice return, but maybe I'm greedy, but imagine what we could see on our roster next year if both were gone?
Graeme: I'm kind of the same way. Will it happen? Probably not. However, I think the question of whether Spezza can become that legitimate number one guy who can carry a team on his back without being flanked by Heatley is important. There's a ton of inherent risk in getting into bed with Spezza for the next 6 years when many of the same criticisms of Heatley can be extended towards Spezza's game. After sitting back and looking at how quickly this team could parlay these two into assets, I think Bryan Murray could move both, put his own true stamp on the roster and come off looking like a genius. He'd be the first from Shawville to make that claim.
Tim: Frank Finnigan was from Shawville wasn't he? He has that stupid road named after him too. I doubt the City of Ottawa will be honouring Murray the same way unless he could pull this off. While the return for Heatley could put us back into playoff contention in the short term, I think the return for Spezza and Heatley would put us over the top for years to come. Not to mention the high draft picks we'd get inevitably getting a top 10 pick next year or two as well.
Graeme: Tim, I'm amazed you didn't crack on me for mentioning the inherent risk of getting into bed with Spezza. But I digress, is trading Spezza overkill? I'm not really convinced that it is. If Murray can't lure Bouwmeester here with Heatley's money, I've convinced myself that a major rebuild is needed. Say Heatley gets dealt with another player for the 5th pick, Teubert and Moller and then parlays Spezza and something into Eberle, another prospect/player and the 10th overall pick this summer. Not only would the team free up 14.5 million in cap room, they'd have two or three NHL ready prospects, and two top 10 picks. Imagine parlaying the 9th and 10th to move up further in the draft? It'd be unreal.
Tim: It would be unreal, and the marketting wouldnt even have to suffer, they'd still have their superstar in whatever FA signing they pull in (Bouwmeester) and crowd (and God's) favourite MIke Fisher. The fans will suffer for another few years without playoff hockey and the bleeding heart fans who just NEED to see us get swept in round one every year by th 1st or 2nd place team can take solace knowing that the Senators will be the next young and exciting team to do wild and crazy things in the playoffs in a relatively short period of time. I don't want to be stuck in a 50 year rebuild like the Maple Leafs.
Graeme: To take that one-step further. Ottawa's always been a city that loves to watch their prospects develop. Look at the Blackhawk and Penguins models, within 4 years, the Penguins turned into legit contenders and I think they only missed the playoffs once or twice during that stretch. We've already missed the playoffs once, one more year of not making the playoffs isn't that bad. If we're counting on Spezza to improve and Leclaire to stay healthy to have any shot at the postseason, I'd be more inclined to just rebuild.
Tim: Exactly, and look at the draft picks Pittsburgh got and what they turned into, granted a Malkin and Crsoby don't come around very often but you're certainly right to assume we could draft some can't miss propsects in those high slots during our rebuilding phase. With those two picks they were right back into contention and eventually champions within 4 years. It's better for the franchise and the fans, even the short sited ones, to admit it that its better to be in contention after a short rebuild than to continuously finish 8th.
Graeme: Continuously finishing 8th is interesting. People look at Murray and say, if he doesn't make the playoffs, he's on Melnyk's hotseat. Well, what happens after they make the playoffs again and fall short the year after. Regardless of what he does, he's destined to get the axe or retire. I think I've talked myself into this.
Tim: I agree, if all it costs us to get back into serious contention is selling high on Spezza and Heatley now, the sky is the limit for the next decade. And as for fans who can't see that far ahead, that's why they move boxes from one end of a room to another for a living and don't manage hockey teams - another year watching good young teams in the playoffs (who aren't Ottawa) is worth the price. With Heatley asking for a trade, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Sens and they could make their move based on the circumstances. If they can't envision Spezza being the guy playing out the term of his contract here, they should look into the possibility of letting him go. But again, it really depends on what Murray does with Heatley. If he gets dealt for picks and prospects, send Spezza packing as well. Try and hit a homerun. Go all out and move Spezza because if this year goes badly, we'll be in the same boat next offseason and we'll have wasted a year in the development plan. Save the cap space, horde young talent and build for Cup contending team with a larger window of opportunity. Cutting and pasting around Spezza and an aging Alfredsson could bite us in the ass.
Graeme: More importantly, a new Jewbillee Jeweler spokesmodel!
Tim: ... And a whole bunch of new whipping boys!
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