| 22 January 2009
Tear it down. Blow ’em up. Cut it to the wood.
Trim the fat? Turn down the suck? Waive Gerber? (Oh wait, that actually happened today. Nevermind.)
All of the above are popular refrains of the disenfranchised fan who believes the best path to glory for their favorite franchise is through a handful of can’t-miss, top-of-the-class draft picks.
Well, you need some kind of silver lining if you're an Islanders fan.
But the more you look around the league, the more you realize the folly of this sentiment. High picks are to NHL GMs what miracle diets are to the lumpy couch potato; sure, they can give you an immediate jolt, but if you want sustainable results, you have to hit the gym.
I'd like to think that a lottery pick is like a Get Out Jail Free card in Monopoly. It affords teams that have been mismanaged to pick a potential franchise player. In what should be a dumb-down, can't miss process, only Mike Milbury can mess this thing up consistently. (And he's now getting paid to argue with Al Strachan on Saturdays.)
In the case of NHL GMs, you need your scouts to scour gyms, arenas and any other place you’d expect to find a burgeoning hockey player who has yet to be spotted or has, at the very least, been underrated. That way, your ability to select impact players isn’t restricted to the 20 minutes immediately following the chorus of boos Gary Bettman receives right after saying, “Welcome to the NHL draft.”
Aside from David Frost, who goes to a gym scouring for never-before seen NHL prospects? It sounds like the perfect cover for those gym pervs. Hey man, what the fuck are you looking at? Oh, you're looking for the next Vinny Lecavalier? Oh, cool. You mind fucking off while I'm in the shower? Thanks.
Want three examples of why you don’t need famine in order to feast in the NHL? Start with Detroit, San Jose and Boston, also known as the three best teams in the league.
It might be prudent to point out that these three teams are the best in standings, now. Ironically, two of these three teams haven't won shit in the modern NHL era. If someone were to argue that Boston has been a perennial contender, I'd put my fingers in my ears and mutter the names Harry Sinden and Mike O'Connell, over and over and over.
The highest any of those clubs have chosen since 2000 is No. 5, which is where the Bruins got Phil Kessel in 2006. Boston has selected in the top 10 on two other occasions over that time frame, while San Jose has three top-10 picks, the highest coming at No. 6 (Milan Michalek). Detroit, as you’d expect, has none.
Interestingly, there's no mention of how Blake Wheeler, the 5th overall pick in 2004, rejected the maximum entry-level contract from the Coyotes and signed with Boston after becoming an unrestricted free agent this past summer. With Wheeler in tow, that essentially means Boston has 4 top 10 picks in the past 8 drafts? Doesn't that qualify as a team that went through some tough times? Hey, let's shit on Boston some more: there's not even a mention of the savage raping Boston endured during the Joe Thornton trade negotiations.
All of those teams got to the top – and can expect to stay there – because they’ve done an exceptional job of drafting in the mid-to-late first round and beyond.
Or, in the case of Detroit, you have a bunch of underpaid, loyal players who have stayed in Detroit to WIN. Perhaps more importantly, these three teams boast a defenceman who will likely be finalist for the Norris Trophy (Lidstrom, Chara and Boyle respectively). Note to bitter Sens fans: For those who are pissed about not being able to land Dan Boyle, just remember that his current deal expires when he's 38. Paying almost $6.7-million for a one-dimensional defenceman is a risky proposition.
To provide a little contrast, examine the plight of the Ottawa Senators, a team with many supporters who want to sink the ship and start again.
If there's no mention of John Muckler's name or tenure, the author will have lost all credibility in my eyes.
Once upon a time, the Sens were among the NHL’s best at unearthing draft gems. In 1997, they nabbed Marian Hossa with the 12th overall pick. Two years later, with the 26th selection, they grabbed Martin Havlat.
Looking back at Ottawa's draft history, has there been a worse draft year than the year Chris Phillips went first overall? Could you imagine looking forward to that shitty of a draft class this summer? Odds are I'd be sporting a dumbfounded look that is worse than the Dumb Penalty Face.
But Ottawa’s depth has been undermined by its inability to continue finding players of that quality.
That and John Muckler compounded the problem by going against the advice of his peers. While many of his colleagues were reluctant to draft Russian prospects because of the absence of a Russian Transfer Agreement, Muckler was busy drafting the likes of: Victor Uchevatov (2nd round, 2001), Alexei Kaigorodov (2nd round, 2002), Vitaly Atyushov (9th round, 2002), Igor Mirnov (2nd round, 2003), Sergei Gimayev (5th round, 2003), Kirill Lyamin (2nd round, 2004), Alexander Nikulin (4th round, 2004), Vitali Anikeyenko (3rd round, 2005) and Dmitry Megalinsky (6th round, 2005). All wasted picks. (Mind you, Kaigorodov was dealt for Comrie, so that's a plus.)
In the virtually idiot-proof first round of 2003, Ottawa drafted Patrick Eaves 29th overall. Boston took Patrice Bergeron with the 45th pick and Nashville hit a home run with Shea Weber four slots later at No. 49.
Why the political correctness? Just come out and tell us what we already know: John Muckler's decisions as GM have finally come back to haunt the Senators. Just say it with us in unison. John Muckler fucking ruined the Senators.
The year before that, in 2002, Ottawa took Jakub Klepis No. 16 overall. Oops.
Klepis netted Vaclav Varada in trade to improve team toughness. Double oops.
(Warning: If you’re not a Red Wings fan, you might not want to read the next paragraph.)
No worries: If you're not a Red Wings fan, you can probably take comfort in the fact that Franzen, Hossa, Zetterburg, Samuelsson, Hudler, Conklin and Kopecky are all eligible for Free Agency. Often when "experts" discuss parity, they focus strictly on how the salary cap era has affected the ability of teams to retain players. With the Red Wings European draft success, they've helped spark copycat measures from the other 29 teams. Just this past summer, our own Senators announced their hiring of Swedish scout, Anders Forsberg. And now we're salivating over how well Andre Petersson and Erik Karlsson played at the WJHC.
San Jose can’t boast a resume like that, but it is getting great mileage from the likes of Ryane Clowe, Christian Ehrhoff, Joe Pavelski and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, none of whom went before the second round in their draft years. And when they had a higher pick in 2005, the Sharks made it count by calling Devin Setoguchi’s name at No. 8.
They're also getting great mileage from some guy named Joe Thornton whom they stole outright from Boston. If any team were to trade a decent second-liner and two plugs for a franchise center, odds are they'd be fucking laughing too. There's no question that luck plays a huge part in the process. Just a year ago, the Sharks were unable to find a suitor for Patrick Marleau. Now they're reaping the benefits as Marleau has returned to form.
In Boston, Milan Lucic and David Krejci – two recent second-rounders – are at the heart of the Bruins’ resurgence.
Still no mention of how ridiculously well Tim Thomas has played since coming over from European obscurity. Did I mention that he's an unrestricted Free Agent this summer? Wait, David Krejci and Phil Kessel are Free Agents too and Lucic the year after? I think I hear cash registers ringing. Ka-ching!
I’m not bringing this up to spray a snow shower in the face of downtrodden Sens fans. No team scans the results of past drafts without the occasional, violent palm-to-forehead motion. I’m simply saying if you believe a series of high picks is a surefire way to build a winner, think again.
Who said anything about a series of high picks? If Ottawa could somehow land either of Hedman or Cowan to compliment Erik Karlsson, the team would have some blue-chip defencemen to compliment the Big 3 up front. It'd actually create a balanced lineup that would hopefully return the team to prominence quicker than some experts would admit.
Ottawa is an especially unique case because unlike other NHL clubs currently serving as doormats, it has got three elite-level players in Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and captain Daniel Alfredsson. Had the Sens drafted three or four players with the ilk of Lucic, Vlasic or Franzen over the past few years, we’d still be talking about them as Cup contenders right now.
Wait? If Ottawa has more elite-level players than the rest of the NHL doormats, wouldn't that mean that they don't require the aforementioned series of top picks? Maybe only one or two would suffice? Hell, if any team drafted Lucic, Vlasic or Franzen, they'd be pretty fucking solid. It's revionist history. Get over it.
I completely understand why bottom-feeders like the Islanders, Atlanta, St. Louis and Toronto are drooling at the prospect of drafting a John Tavares or Victor Hedman. Those teams are, to some degree, devoid of talent and need a new cornerstone around which to build.
Yeah, Victor Hedman. A defensive cornerstone that the Senators desperately could use and build around. The Senators roster lacks balance. If Murray can remedy this, the team will be alright.
But being bad and picking very high for a number of years does have its perils.
Only if you're an Islanders fan during the late 90's.
First of all, the boom only comes after a bust and who knows how many fans a prolonged down cycle alienates if you’re not in a market where hockey is the undisputed No. 1 sport.
Good thing we live in Ottawa where the number one sport isn't ultimate frisbee. I can understand the sentiment regarding fairweather fans though. Apparently the viewership for Sens games is down this season. (So much for assuming that better educated fans would be less inclined to jump off the bandwagon. I can't wait to see how many Sens fans decide to root for another Canadian team in the Playoffs. Is there a lamer excuse to cheer for another team than this? Wait, I got it: Canadians who rooted for the Anaheim Ducks because they had more Canadians on their roster during the 2007 Cup Finals.)
Secondly, at some point you’re going to be paying out a huge amount of salary to a small portion of your team. For example, the Chicago Blackhawks will have to pony up for both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews after next season when their entry-level deals both expire.
Overpaying your superstars will never kill your cap system. Overvaluing and overpaying the complimentary players will always be more problematic. (Ie. Mike Fisher, Cristobal Huet, Wade Redden, et al.)
With Brian Campbell already raking in about $7.1 million per season, how much money are the Hawks going to have left under what’s sure to be a falling cap in 2010-11 when they have to fork out huge dough for their top two forwards? Those three players plus Cristobal Huet will essentially eat up half of Chicago’s cap space. That puts a lot of pressure on management to provide the supporting cast at a reasonable cost.
The Campbell contract raises a valid point. Teams will overpay for what they need. In Detroit's case only makes slightly more than a Campbell or Redden but the difference in value for the money is indisputable. Neither of Kane or Toews are going to kill Chicago's cap, it's a bad contract like Huet's that will completely unravel a team's ability to build a winner. Typically, every team in the NHL has a bad contract or two. It's limiting these types of bad signings that will allow teams that draft high to compete for a longer time frame.
Want further proof a series of high picks doesn’t guarantee results? The Pittsburgh Penguins are playing with two No. 1 picks (Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury), two No. 2 selections (Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin) and one No. 5 pick in Ryan Whitney in their lineup.
Shit, didn't the Penguins go to the Cup Finals last year? How quickly we forget. Shitting on the process for how teams get to the Finals is ridiculous. If there was some formula for how to get there, every team would be following it. Look at the Florida Marlins in the MLB, typically they annually shit the bed because they're too cheap to pay their players once they're eligible for raises. Rather than retain their players, they parlay them for prospects and build for a one or two year window. That's how things are developing in hockey. In the salary cap era, it's near impossible to retain all of the valuable cogs of a successful franchise. But kudos to Pittsburgh for locking all of these players up. Considering all of these players were drafted after 2003, it took five years of ineptness for Pittsburgh to reach the Cup Finals. Wouldn't this be an exception to the rule that a series of high picks doesn't translate into success?
Pittsburgh did make the final last year, but lost to a Wings team that was deeper than the Pens because of their incredible tendency to find quality players from all over the world. Then, one of the Pens’ best players, Marian Hossa, left town for Detroit because of the Wings’ ability to perennially contend. Guess how they do that.
Ah, so you do remember that Pittsburgh went to the Cup Finals! Hmmm, maybe Detroit got Hossa to sign by enticing him with the same hookers who landed their former Mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, in jail? Personally, I think they were able to sign Hossa because Zetterburg, Maltby, Draper, Holmstrom, Samuelsson, Hudler, Kopecky and Franzen are all underpaid. Oh, and they spend less than $2.2-million on their goaltending tandem.
Now Pittsburgh is in a life-and-death battle to make the playoffs, partly because it hasn’t drafted any natural 25-goal scorers in the later rounds who would be 35-goal scorers if they were playing beside Crosby.
That's not true. Ryan Malone and Colby Armstrong have played well with Crosby. Angelo Esposito or Eric Christensen could eventually turn out to be that player - however, he was dealt to Atlanta at last year's Trade Deadline. To say that Pittsburgh hasn't drafted these players is wrong. They have. However, through the dynamics of the salary cap era, they've refrained from overpaying to keep these supplementary players. Maybe I'm wrong, but isn't the author making it seem that it's easy to uncover gems in the later rounds. You think if the Edmonton Oilers knew how good Mark Messier was, they would have drafted him in the first round and not the second? Luck plays a huge role on draft day and it's being completely ignored in this article. Like I mentioned earlier, all of Pittsburgh's best players were drafted after 2003. Since they returned to prominence recently, they've only had a late pick last year (that was traded in the Hossa deal) and later picks usually take longer to develop.
Fans of struggling teams can cry for a complete rebuild if they want, but a steady diet of top picks can leave you with nothing more than a bloated salary cap if you’re not supplementing it with a nice dose of hidden gems.
Given the contraints of the salary cap system, now more than ever, teams are limited to having a short window of opportunity to win the Cup. Every NHL club is faced with the prospect of losing supplementary players. After this season, Detroit will probably lose Hossa and maybe one or two more. Will they be able to replace their production? Probably not. If you want sustainable success in the "new NHL", you're going to have to have a slew of luck and a GM that's not named John Muckler.
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